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MSquared Capital

Investors

As a private credit provider we regularly release economic opinion pieces, market updates, and firm-related investment content. 

Australia’s private credit reckoning has arrived, warns Msquared Capital Co-Founder & Fund Manager Paul Miron. He believes the collapse of a major property developer has revealed a fault line, forcing investors to confront a question often overlooked during the boom years: what exactly is their money lending against, and how will those loans perform when property markets turn.
There are parts of the private credit market that will struggle over the next 12-24 months, predicts Msquared Capital’s Paul Miron. In his latest interview with Ausbiz, he says construction and development lending is particularly vulnerable to economic conditions and contagion risks. Budget measures continue to see turbulence in property valuations, while at the same time, debt-laden developers rely on constant property sales to sustain cash flow.
Australia’s housing crisis is entering a far more dangerous phase than most people realise warns Msquared Capital Co‑Founder & Fund Manager Paul Miron. He argues the government has accidentally engineered a supply freeze in the very part of the market where supply is most needed, with new tax settings hitting investors, tightening credit, and pushing rents higher. Measures may even push Australia's future housing stock into the hands of offshore institutional capital.
Changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax have already triggered a sharp pullback in investor demand for property. Msquared Capital Co-Founder and Fund Manager Paul Miron warns property prices could fall more than 10% if clearance rates keep trending below 50%.
The housing crisis is going to get much worse before it gets better, warns Msquared Capital Co-Founder & Fund Manager Paul Miron. The budget could deliver the worst possible measures at the worst possible time – he argues that higher inflation and tighter property supply will not resolve intergenerational inequality.
How are geopolitics and energy shocks shifting risk in Australia’s property and private credit markets? Paul Miron argues the latest pressures are already biting – from construction costs that could jump 20% to clearance rates in Sydney slipping toward 50%. Paul outlines why he believes some property prices have already fallen more than 10%, why lenders need to interrogate valuations more aggressively, and why secured private credit over established property remains his preferred position in volatile conditions.
Msquared Capital's Paul Miron says Australia’s economic prosperity has been built on good luck and not good policy. In an exclusive interview with Livewire’s James Marlay, Paul explores the supply and demand dynamics plaguing property markets and the broader economy. They also talk about the run of redemptions hitting high profile global private credit funds.

MSquared Capital

Brokers

As a non-bank lender we regularly release media content about product updates, market trends and opinion pieces about the lending landscape in Australia. 

There are parts of the private credit market that will struggle over the next 12-24 months, predicts Msquared Capital’s Paul Miron. In his latest interview with Ausbiz, he says construction and development lending is particularly vulnerable to economic conditions and contagion risks. Budget measures continue to see turbulence in property valuations, while at the same time, debt-laden developers rely on constant property sales to sustain cash flow.
Msquared Capital has appointed a new chief commercial officer and expanded its origination team after surpassing $1.5 billion in commercial lending. Michael Volkiene has been promoted from general manager – loan origination and credit to the newly created chief commercial officer (CCO) role. The appointment comes as the private credit firm looks to expand its footprint, citing tighter bank lending criteria, growing demand for non-bank finance and a shortage of experienced credit professionals across the sector.
Bank credit appetite is tightening month to month as rising energy costs, inflation and interest rates create a challenging environment for SMEs. Creditworthy businesses are being told no, or worse, are left waiting for an answer while the clock runs down on a time-critical opportunity. For brokers who know how to navigate commercial finance, 2026 is proving to be one of the most significant growth opportunities seen in years. Broker Daily interviews Michael Volkiene, General Manager Loan Origination & Credit at Msquared Capital, about how the best commercial brokers are helping borrowers weather uncertainty.
Brokers are handling increasingly complex scenarios across both traditional and alternative lending avenues. Michael Volkiene, general manager, loan origination and credit, of private credit group Msquared Capital, expects brokers to claim 55%-60% of the commercial lending space over the next three years. He sees this as a result of brokers diversifying and responding to the increasingly sophisticated needs and expectations of their clients.
Despite weak consumer confidence and geopolitical uncertainty, Australian borrowers with strong balance sheets are re‑gearing to capture business opportunities. Msquared Capital’s General Manager Loan Origination & Credit Michael Volkiene tells ausbiz that rising interest rates have not subdued the impact investor demand for yield has on lenders, where the contest for quality borrowers is intensifying. He expects continued strong growth in activity from entrepreneurial Australian SMEs for the remainder of the year.
Findings from Msquared Capital indicate that demand for specialist non-bank lenders is rising as major banks step back from complex commercial lending scenarios. The lender says it is seeing a sharp increase in commercial borrower enquiries heading into 2026 as businesses refinance to manage higher interest rates, address tax obligations and inject fresh working capital.

Following unprecedented growth in commercial lending demand, Connective has added Msquared Capital to its panel to bolster options for brokers servicing complex commercial lending scenarios. Specialising in short-term loans, the private credit firm has been added to provide up to 80% LVR lending against residential, commercial and industrial securities. Msquared Capital was founded in 2017 […]

Disclaimer

One Managed Investment Funds Limited ACN 117 400 987 AFSL 297042 (OIG) is responsible entity and issuer of units in Msquared Mortgage Income Fund ARSN 682 099 350 (MMIF, Fund). Msquared Capital Retail Funds Management Pty Ltd ACN 679 611 146 is the investment manager of MMIF (Manager). The Manager is a corporate authorised representative (no. 1312858) of One Investment Administration Ltd ACN 072 899 060 AFSL 225064 (OIAL) in respect of financial services provided to ‘retail clients’ (as defined in the Corporations Act) (Retail Clients). The Manager is also a corporate authorised representative (no. 1312533) of Msquared Capital Pty Ltd ACN 622 507 297 AFSL 520293 (Msquared Capital) in respect of financial services (including general financial product advice in relation to the Fund) provided to ‘wholesale clients’ only (as defined in the Corporations Act) (Wholesale Clients). Msquared Capital Pty Ltd ACN 622 507 297 AFSL 520293 (Msquared Capital) is the trustee and issuer of the units in Msquared Contributory Mortgage Income Fund and Msquared High Yield Mortgage Income Fund (MCMIF and MHYMIF, Fund or Funds), which are available only to Wholesale Clients. The information provided on this website (Information) is general in nature and does not constitute investment or personal financial product advice, and does not take into account your investment objectives, particular needs or financial situation. You should seek independent financial advice. *Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The payment, specific rate of return and frequency of distributions are not guaranteed. Performance comparisons are provided purely for information purposes only and should not be relied upon. The Information may include information that is predictive in character which may be affected by inaccurate assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties and may differ materially from results ultimately achieved. Neither OIG, Msquared Capital, Manager nor any of their related entities guarantee the performance of the Funds or the repayment of any investor’s capital, and neither give any representation or warranty as to the reliability, completeness or accuracy of the Information and do not accept liability for any inaccurate, incomplete or omitted information or any losses caused by using this Information. Not an offer to invest. You should carefully consider the respective Fund’s disclosure documents, including Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) and Target Market Determination (TMD) for the MMIF or Information Memorandum and any Loan Memorandum for MCMIF and MHYMIF before making any decision about whether to acquire, or continue to hold, an interest in any of the Funds. Applications for units in the Fund can only be made pursuant to the application form relevant to the Fund.

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