How are geopolitics and energy shocks shifting risk in Australia’s property and private credit markets? Paul Miron argues the latest pressures are already biting – from construction costs that could jump 20% to clearance rates in Sydney slipping toward 50%. Paul outlines why he believes some property prices have already fallen more than 10%, why lenders need to interrogate valuations more aggressively, and why secured private credit over established property remains his preferred position in volatile conditions. He also weighs in on potential tax changes – negative gearing, CGT and GST – warning that poorly timed reforms could tighten supply further and push rents higher, echoing the policy reversal of 1985.
Key points:
- Energy shock and supply chain issues seen driving construction costs higher
- Clearance rates and sentiment viewed as signalling property price falls already under way
- Secured private credit over established property preferred to construction and corporate debt
- Proposed changes to negative gearing and property tax seen as risking reduced supply and higher rents
Disclaimer:
Msquared Capital Pty Ltd ACN 622 507 297 AFSL 520293. The information provided is general in nature and reflects the views of the speaker at the time of recording. Forward-looking information is inherently uncertain, and actual results may differ materially from projections. The information has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs, and does not constitute personal financial product advice, investment advice or a recommendation. Before making any investment decision, you should consider whether the information is appropriate to your circumstances and seek independent financial advice.
